Air cargo market Jan. 2025: Growth continues, but moderates

Steady growth, but weaker
The air cargo market continued to grow in January 2025, IATA figures show. Global demand rose 3.2%, marking 18 consecutive months of growth for the sector. Capacity increased 6.8%, mainly due to international flights.

Still, the growth is less than double-digit in 2024. Revenues fell 9.9% and occupancy also declined.

IATA Director General Willie Walsh said the industry continues to benefit from trade growth and e-commerce, but external factors such as possible trade tariffs from the U.S. government create uncertainty.

Economic trends influence market
Industrial production grew 2.6% in December, and global merchandise trade increased for nine consecutive months. The PMI for industrial production rose above 50 in January, indicating growth, but new export orders remain just below this threshold.

Inflation rose slightly in the U.S. (3.0%), Europe (2.8%) and China (0.5%), which may impact transportation costs and consumer behavior. Airlines are responding by strategically managing capacity and increasing efficiency.

Wide regional differences
Latin America (+11.2%) and Asia Pacific (+7.5%) experienced the strongest growth, followed by North America (+5.3%). Europe saw a modest increase of 1.3%, while the Middle East (-8.4%) and Africa (-3.4%) recorded declines.

Despite these differences, air cargo continues to benefit from e-commerce and limited capacity in shipping. This presents opportunities, but requires flexibility within the industry.

Outlook for 2025
Demand for air cargo is driven by e-commerce and trade growth, while fluctuations in fuel prices and geopolitical developments pose risks. Airlines will need to continue to adapt their strategies to changing market conditions. The coming months will determine whether the industry can maintain the growth trend.

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