Return to Suez Canal earliest in 2027

A large-scale return of container liner shipping to the Suez Canal route is likely to be years away. Due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East, market analysts expect that a return to the route will not be possible until mid-2027 at the earliest, provided the geopolitical situation stabilizes. This means that, for the time being, the logistics sector must reckon with structurally longer shipping routes and continued uncertainty.

Rerouting remains the norm for now

Since the disruptions in the Red Sea, many shipping lines have been avoiding the route through the Suez Canal and opting for the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope. This detour results in longer transit times and higher costs, but is currently considered the safest and most reliable option. Although there had previously been tentative indications that shipping lines such as CMA CGM and Maersk wanted to resume using the Suez Canal, the recent escalation in the region has once again delayed these plans.

Major impact on capacity and tariffs

The longer shipping route has a direct impact on available capacity in the market. Because ships are en route longer, more capacity is needed to transport the same volumes. According to market analysts, this leads to a temporary relief from the overcapacity previously present in the market.

At the same time, container rates are rising again. Shipping lines are gaining more control over the market, while shippers are facing higher costs and less flexibility. Spot rates for transport between Asia and Europe are now rising rapidly again. Ships and cargo are stuck in the region.

The situation is further complicated by the fact that ships have become stranded in the Middle East. Xeneta analysts say there are currently more than 100 container ships in the region that cannot operate freely.In addition, many ships in the area are waiting for clarity on safe routes and destinations, creating additional delays and uncertainty in the global logistics chain.

Limited alternatives increase risks

An added complication is that alternative routes are not always available. Whereas rerouting via South Africa still offers an option for avoiding the Red Sea, the same is not true for other strategic passages in the region. This increases the vulnerability of global supply chains.

Flexibility increasingly important in supply chains

The current situation underscores the importance of flexibility within international logistics networks. By using different routes, transport modes and strategic planning, companies can better respond to disruptions and changing market conditions.
Spreading risks and timely anticipation of geopolitical developments are becoming increasingly important to ensure security of supply.

How Neele-Vat supports customers

Neele-Vat advises clients in dealing with longer transit times and changing shipping routes, such as re-routing via the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Suez Canal. By calculating scenarios in advance, clients can plan better and avoid surprises.
Neele-Vat also provides support in redesigning logistics chains, for example by adjusting inventories, lead times or transport mixes.

This ensures delivery reliability and flexibility even in uncertain times.

Want to know the impact of longer shipping routes on your supply chain? Contact Neele-Vat for an analysis and advice tailored to your logistics situation.